Bitcoin opened Tuesday trading at 2,330, down 2.23% over the past 24 hours and 2.73% over the past week, as the cryptocurrency finds itself caught between competing forces. On one side, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have finally reversed an eight-week outflow streak. On the other, escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish pivot from Fed Governor Christopher Waller are creating serious macro headwinds.
The ETF Story That Matters
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 97.4 million in net inflows for the week ending July 11, breaking an eight-week streak of withdrawals. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with 6.8 million in single-day inflows on July 10. This is genuinely constructive — institutional money is beginning to trickle back in after a prolonged period of outflows.
But the picture remains uneven. ETF flows turned net negative by .9 million over July 11-13, suggesting the recovery in institutional demand is fragile and conditional. The seven-day cumulative stands at 21.2 million, with five of the last seven days posting positive flows.
The Macro Wall
Fed Governor Waller’s hawkish comments on Monday are the most significant macro event for crypto this week. He explicitly warned that a rate hike may be needed “in the near term” if core inflation remains elevated. Markets repriced the probability of a July rate hike from 22% to 39%. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 27, firmly in “Fear” territory. 93% of liquidations over the past 24 hours were long positions. Support at 2,000 is being tested with the next floor around 8,000. Resistance sits at 4,000-6,000.